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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."