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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.